Why Most Art Is a Bad Investment (and Why That’s Fine)
Survivorship bias is the dominant distortion in every art-investment conversation. Here’s what the graveyard actually looks like.
Survivorship bias is the dominant distortion in every art-investment conversation. Here’s what the graveyard actually looks like.
The mega-galleries have absorbed the mid-tier. The next wave won’t be mergers — it’ll be the slow winnowing of the ecosystem that made the megas possible.
The noise was dialed way down. The wires were not. Our post-fair read on what actually sold, who bought, and what the dealer WhatsApp threads really said.
Kusama was not a trend. She was a decade-long market structure. Replacing her at the top of global volume is a harder question than it looks.
The right first year is mostly listening. The wrong first year is buying everything at once. A realistic, slow playbook for new collectors.
Wool’s last great year at auction was a decade ago. We look at what’s actually trading, where the liquidity hides, and why word paintings sell better than the rest.
Switzerland looked like a museum. That’s a feature now, not a problem. We unpack the buyer mix, the slow-mover list, and what it signals for June.
It doesn’t look like 2009. It looks like a slow, asymmetric widening of bid-ask that’s visible only if you watch withdrawn lots and buy-ins.
Capital gains, sales tax, use tax, 1031-equivalents, and freeport treatments all shape real after-tax return. A walk through the rules that actually bite.
Condo’s market has the oddest quality of any living painter — it keeps working. We audit why, and what should give a disciplined buyer pause.